Technical Report No. 12-80

Life Span Study Report 9. Part 1. Cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors, 1950-78

Kato H, Schull WJ

 

Editor’s note:

The following journal articles, based on this ABCC technical report, were published in the scientific literature:
Kato H, Schull WJ: Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors 7. Mortality, 1950-78: Part 1. Cancer mortality. Radiat Res 90:395-432, 1982
Kato H, Schull WJ: Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors 7. Mortality, 1950-78: Part 1. Cancer mortality (Part 1). Hiroshima Igaku [J Hiroshima Med Assoc] 35:1472-82, 1982 (in Japanese)
Kato H, Schull WJ: Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 7. Mortality, 1950-78: Part 1. Cancer mortality (Part 2). Hiroshima Igaku [J Hiroshima Med Assoc] 36:79-90, 1983 (in Japanese)

 

Summary

The present study extends an earlier one by 4 years from 1975 to 1978. Leukemia as a cause of death among survivors has continued to decrease and now differs from the control group only in Hiroshima. For cancer other than leukemia the increase in absolute risk has become more marked as the cohort has aged and especially so in Nagasaki where it is now statistically significant for the first time. In addition to previously demonstrated sites (i.e., lung, breast, stomach, esophagus, and urinary tract) colon cancer and multiple myeloma can now be shown to be significantly related to exposure. No significant relationship to radiation can as yet be established for malignant lymphoma, rectum, pancreas and uterine cancer.

It has not been possible with the present data to determine statistically whether the dose response to gamma rays is linear or nonlinear. The relative biological effectiveness value of neutrons for leukemia and lung, breast, and stomach cancer ranges from 2 to 7 under the linear model for gamma rays.

The time from exposure to death is shortened for leukemia depending on dose but not for other cancers, and radiation-induced cancers other than leukemia seem to develop proportionally to the natural cancer rate for the attained age. For specific age-at-death intervals, both relative and absolute risks tend to be higher for younger age-at-time-of-bomb individuals.

 

Editor’s note:

The following components of this report contain data on communicable disease frequencies, allergies, malignancies, and many other symptoms that may be of interest from a public health standpoint.

 

List of Tables

1. The effect of rounding process and relocation of the Nagasaki hypocenter on number of subjects
2. Absolute risk (excess deaths/10⁶ PYR) by period and site of cancer
3. Absolute risk (excess deaths/10⁶ PYR) by period, city, and site of cancer
4. Model fitness and RBE estimation for specific sites of cancer
5. Estimated RBE for deaths due to cancer comparison of kerma and organ dose
6. Relative risk for all cancers except leukemia by age ATB, 100+ rad vs 0 rad, 1950-1978
7. Absolute risk by age ATB (excess deaths/10⁶ PYR, 1950-1978)
8. Estimated number of excess cancer deaths and proportion to all causes and specific sites of cancer, 1950-1978, exposed, LSS extended sample
9. Estimated number of excess cancer deaths, 1950-1978, among a total 283,498 A-bomb survivors, all Japan in 1950

 

List of Figures

1. Relative risk and 90% confidence intervals for specific sites of cancer 1950-1978, 200+ rad vs 0 rad
2. Average annual death rate (age, sex-adjusted) by T65 revised kerma dose for specific sites of cancer, 1950-1978
3. Cumulative percentage of latent period for specific sites of cancer by radiation dose
4. Cumulative death rate per 1,000 for lung cancer by age ATB, 1950-1978
5. Absolute risk and relative risk for all cancers except leukemia by age ATB
6. Radiation and other carcinogens