Technical Report No. 1-63

JNIH–ABCC Life Span Study. Report 2. Mortality in selection I and II, October 1950-September 1959

Jablon S, Ishida M, Beebe GW

 

Editor’s note:

The following journal articles, based on this ABCC technical report, were published in the scientific literature:
Jablon S, Ishida M, Beebe GW. Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 2. Mortality in selections I and II, 1950-1959. Radiat Res 21:423-45, 1964
Jablon S, Ishida M, Beebe GW: JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study: Mortality of A-bomb survivors, Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Report 2. October 1950-September 1959. Hiroshima Igaku [J Hiroshima Med Assoc] 17:1156-80, 1964 (in Japanese)

 

Summary

The present JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study is based on a sample of about 100,000 persons consisting of survivors 0-2499 m of the hypocenter together with persons more distally located and persons not present in either city ATB. This report is based on observation from October 1950 to September 1959 for the first 2 groups selected for the study, numbering more than 90, 000 persons. Each person included in the study has been the subject of field interview to obtain required background information and to determine eligibility.

Follow up is maintained by consulting official family registers kept by local authorities in Japan. Tests of the family register system have shown it to be remarkably complete. When death is ascertained from the family register, cause of death is obtained from a transcript of the Vital Statistics Death Schedule. 

An ambitious dosimetry program, in cooperation with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, will ultimately make possible analysis of dose for most survivors who were in the open or in houses of light wood construction 0-1999 m of the hypocenter. However, this program is not yet complete and, for the moment, tentative approximations of dose are employed.

Mortality rates calculated from the present data agree fairly well with Japanese national rates for 1955.

Total mortality rates are not grossly different between survivors who were located at various distances, but nonexposed persons, especially males, have much lower mortality rates than do survivors. In large measure this difference is attributable to much lower mortality from tuberculosis. It appears that, for the time-period studied, selective mechanisms make the nonexposed an unsuitable comparison group.

Leukemia mortality rates calculated from the present data confirm the well known facts as to the leukemogenic effects of radiation from the atomic bombs on survivors. The results, on the whole, are not dissimilar to data previously published by ABCC investigators but do differ in some details, presumably as a result of diagnostic inaccuracies on the death notices.

Mortality from malignant neoplasms other than leukemia found by the present study differs in major ways from what would be expected from data of the Hiroshima Tumor Registry previously published by Harada and Ishida. Instead of a general increase of rather large magnitude in tumors of all sites among heavily irradiated survivors, an effect of moderate magnitude (though quite definite) is found among Hiroshima females. This effect is attributable almost entirely to an increased frequency of firstly, stomach cancer and secondly, cancer of the uterus. No effect is seen in Hiroshima males or in either sex in Nagasaki. The effect seems not to be related to the history of symptoms of acute radiation injury. No interpretation of the finding is offered at this time.

Among survivors nearest the hypocenter no convincing evidence was found of elevation in mortality rates for natural causes exclusive of neoplasms.

Definitely increased death rates for aplastic anemia were found, especially in Nagasaki. This, it is thought, probably results from diagnostic difficulties in distinguishing between this disease and leukemia.

Mortality from tuberculosis was elevated among male survivors 0-1399 m in both cities, but especially in Hiroshima. No explanation of this finding is presently available. There is a suggestion that both males and females aged 5-9 at observation may have suffered some excess mortality in the 1950-1959 period.

 

Editor’s note:

The following components of this report contain data on communicable disease frequencies, allergies, malignancies, and many other symptoms that may be of interest from a public health standpoint.

 

List of Tables

1. Sample for JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study by selection, city, and distance from hypocenter
2. Period of observation for mortality JNIH-ABCC Life Span Study by selection and source list
   Data for: LIFE SPAN STUDY, SELECTIONS I AND II, HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI, OCTOBER 1950-SEPTEMBER 1959
3. Number of deaths and death rate all causes by age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
4. Death rate all causes by age, sex, and distance from hypocenter Hiroshima + Nagasaki
5. Death rate malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia by age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
6. Observed and expected deaths malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia by age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
7. Observed and expected deaths specified malignant neoplasms, female, by city, distance from hypocenter, and symptoms group
8. Death rate by cause of death, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
9. Person years of observation 1950-1959 by T57Dose, and city, 0-1999 m
10. Death rate all causes, summary tests of significance, linear regressions on T57Dose 0-1999 m by age, sex, and city
11. Death rate all causes observed and predicted by regression equations by T57Dose, age, sex, and distance from hypocenter
12. Leukemia death rate observed and predicted by regression equations by T57Dose, age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
13. Death rate malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia, summary tests of significance, linear regressions on T57Dose 0-1999 m by age, sex, and city
14. Death rate malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia observed and predicted, statistically significant regression equations by T57Dose, age, sex, and distance from hypocenter
15. Death rate natural causes excluding malignant neoplasms, summary tests of significance, linear regressions on T57Dose 0-1999 m by age, sex, and city
16. Death rate natural causes excluding malignant neoplasms observed and predicted, statistically significant regression equations by T57Dose, age, sex, and distance from hypocenter

 

List of Figures

1. Person years of observation Selection I and II combined by age, sex, and distance from hypocenter, Hiroshima + Nagasaki
2. Average T57Dose, gamma + neutron, number of shielding interviews by city and distance from hypocenter
3. Mortality rates, Life Span Study 1950-1959 and all Japan 1950, 1955, 1960
4. Mortality from all causes, death rates/1000 by age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
5. Mortality from all causes, death rates/1000 by age, and sex, Hiroshima + Nagasaki
6. Mortality from leukemia, death rates/100,000 by sex, and distance from hypocenter, Hiroshima + Nagasaki
7. Mortality from malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia annual death rates/1000 by age, sex, and distance from hypocenter
8. Mortality from malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia death rates/1000 by age, sex, and distance from hypocenter
9. Mortality from malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia age standardized death rates/1000 by sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
10. Mortality from malignant neoplasms excluding leukemia age standardized death rates/1000 by time, sex, and distance from hypocenter, Hiroshima + Nagasaki
11. Mortality from natural causes excluding malignant neoplasms death rates/1000 by age, sex, city, and distance from hypocenter
12. Mortality from natural causes excluding malignant neoplasms death rates/1000 by age, sex, and distance from hypocenter, Hiroshima – Nagasaki
13. Mortality from tuberculosis, in survivors and those not in city age standardized death rates/1000 by time, and sex, Hiroshima, Nagasaki
14. Person years of observation 1950-1959 by T57Dose, and city, 0-1999 m